Bank of Canada Rate Announcement July 15th, 2020
Victor Anasimiv • July 15, 2020
Bank of Canada will maintain current level of policy rate until inflation objective is achieved, continues program of quantitative easing.
The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly ½ percent and the deposit rate is ¼ percent. The Bank is also continuing its quantitative easing (QE) program, with large-scale asset purchases of at least $5 billion per week of Government of Canada bonds. The Bank’s short-term liquidity programs announced since March to improve market functioning are having their intended effect and, with reduced market strains, their use has declined. The provincial and corporate bond purchase programs will continue as announced. The Bank stands ready to adjust its programs if market conditions warrant.
While economies are re-opening, the global and Canadian outlook is extremely uncertain, given the unpredictability of the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. Reflecting this, the Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) presents a central scenario for global and Canadian growth rather than the usual economic projections. The central scenario is based on assumptions outlined in the MPR, including that there is no widespread second wave of the virus.
After a sharp drop in the first half of 2020, global economic activity is picking up. This return to growth reflects the relaxation of necessary containment measures put in place to slow the spread of the coronavirus, combined with extraordinary fiscal and monetary policy support. As a result, financial conditions have improved. The prices of most commodities, including oil, have risen from very low levels. In the central scenario, the global economy overall shrinks by about 5 percent in 2020 and then grows by around 5 percent on average in 2021 and 2022. The timing and pace of the recovery varies among regions and could be hampered by a resurgence of infections and the limited capacity of some countries to contain the virus or support their economies.
The Canadian economy is starting to recover as it re-opens from the shutdowns needed to limit the virus spread. With economic activity in the second quarter estimated to have been 15 percent below its level at the end of 2019, this is the deepest decline in economic activity since the Great Depression, but considerably less severe than the worst scenarios presented in the April MPR. Decisive and necessary fiscal and monetary policy actions have supported incomes and kept credit flowing, cushioning the fall and laying the foundation for recovery. Since early June, the government has announced additional support programs, and extended others.
There are early signs that the reopening of businesses and pent-up demand are leading to an initial bounce-back in employment and output. In the central scenario, roughly 40 percent of the collapse in the first half of the year is made up in the third quarter. Subsequently, the Bank expects the economy’s recuperation to slow as the pandemic continues to affect confidence and consumer behaviour and as the economy works through structural challenges. As a result, in the central scenario, real GDP declines by 7.8 percent in 2020 and resumes with growth of 5.1 percent in 2021 and 3.7 percent in 2022. The Bank expects economic slack to persist as the recovery in demand lags that of supply, creating significant disinflationary pressures.
CPI inflation is close to zero, pulled down by sharp declines in components such as gasoline and travel services. The Bank’s core measures of inflation have drifted down, although by much less than the CPI, and are now between 1.4 and 1.9 percent. Inflation is expected to remain weak before gradually strengthening toward 2 percent as the drag from low gas prices and other temporary effects dissipates and demand recovers, reducing economic slack.
As the economy moves from reopening to recuperation, it will continue to require extraordinary monetary policy support. The Governing Council will hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainability achieved. In addition, to reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve, the Bank is continuing its large-scale asset purchase program at a pace of at least $5 billion per week of Government of Canada bonds. This QE program is making borrowing more affordable for households and businesses and will continue until the recovery is well underway. To support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective, the Bank is prepared to provide further monetary stimulus as needed.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 9, 2020. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on October 28, 2020.
Cashback Mortgages: Are They Worth It? Here’s What You Need to Know If you’ve been exploring mortgage options and come across the term cashback mortgage , you might be wondering what exactly it means—and whether it’s a smart move. Let’s break it down in simple terms. What Is a Cashback Mortgage? A cashback mortgage is just like a regular mortgage—but with one extra feature: you receive a lump sum of cash when the mortgage closes . This cash is typically: A fixed amount , or A percentage of the total mortgage , usually between 1% and 7% , depending on your mortgage term and lender. The money is tax-free and paid directly to you on closing day. What Can You Use the Cashback For? There are no restrictions on how you use the funds. Here are some common uses: Covering closing costs Buying new furniture Renovations or home upgrades Paying off high-interest debt Boosting your cashflow during a tight transition Whether it’s to help you settle in or catch up financially, cashback can offer a helpful buffer— but it comes at a cost . The True Cost of a Cashback Mortgage Here’s the part many people overlook: cashback mortgages come with higher interest rates than standard mortgages. Why? Because the lender is essentially advancing you a small loan upfront—and they’re going to make that money back (and then some) through your mortgage payments. So while the upfront cash feels like a bonus, you’ll pay more in interest over time to have that convenience. Breaking Down the Numbers It’s hard to give a blanket answer about how much more you’ll pay since it depends on: Your interest rate The cashback amount The mortgage term Your payment schedule This is why it’s important to run the numbers with a mortgage professional who can help you compare this option with others based on your personal financial situation. Are You Eligible for a Cashback Mortgage? Not everyone qualifies. Cashback mortgages generally come with stricter requirements . Lenders often want to see: Excellent credit history Strong, stable income Low debt-to-income ratio If your mortgage file includes anything “outside the box”—like being self-employed or recently changing jobs—qualifying for a cashback mortgage might be tough. What If You Need to Break the Mortgage? This is one of the biggest risks with cashback mortgages. If your circumstances change and you need to break your mortgage early, you could be on the hook for: Paying back some or all of the cashback you received, and A prepayment penalty (typically the interest rate differential or 3 months’ interest—whichever is higher) That can be a very expensive combination. So if there’s even a chance you might need to sell, refinance, or move before your term is up, a cashback mortgage might not be the best fit. Should You Consider a Cashback Mortgage? Maybe—but only with eyes wide open. Cashback mortgages can be helpful in the right scenario, but they’re not free money. They’re a lending tool that benefits the lender , and the key is knowing exactly what you’re agreeing to. Final Thoughts: Talk to an Expert First Choosing the right mortgage isn’t just about the lowest rate or the biggest perk—it’s about making a choice that fits your whole financial picture. If you’re considering a cashback mortgage, or just want to explore all your options, let’s talk. As an independent mortgage professional , I can help you weigh the pros and cons of various products, so you can make a confident, informed decision. Have questions? I’d be happy to help—reach out anytime.
Can You Afford That Mortgage? Let’s Talk About Debt Service Ratios One of the biggest factors lenders look at when deciding whether you qualify for a mortgage is something called your debt service ratios. It’s a financial check-up to make sure you can handle the payments—not just for your new home, but for everything else you owe as well. If you’d rather skip the math and have someone walk through this with you, that’s what I’m here for. But if you like to understand how things work behind the scenes, keep reading. We’re going to break down what these ratios are, how to calculate them, and why they matter when it comes to getting approved. What Are Debt Service Ratios? Debt service ratios measure your ability to manage your financial obligations based on your income. There are two key ratios lenders care about: Gross Debt Service (GDS) This looks at the percentage of your income that would go toward housing expenses only. 2. Total Debt Service (TDS) This includes your housing costs plus all other debt payments—car loans, credit cards, student loans, support payments, etc. How to Calculate GDS and TDS Let’s break down the formulas. GDS Formula: (P + I + T + H + Condo Fees*) ÷ Gross Monthly Income Where: P = Principal I = Interest T = Property Taxes H = Heat Condo fees are usually calculated at 50% of the total amount TDS Formula: (GDS + Monthly Debt Payments) ÷ Gross Monthly Income These ratios tell lenders if your budget is already stretched too thin—or if you’ve got room to safely take on a mortgage. How High Is Too High? Most lenders follow maximum thresholds, especially for insured (high-ratio) mortgages. As of now, those limits are typically: GDS: Max 39% TDS: Max 44% Go above those numbers and your application could be declined, regardless of how confident you feel about your ability to manage the payments. Real-World Example Let’s say you’re earning $90,000 a year, or $7,500 a month. You find a home you love, and the monthly housing costs (mortgage payment, property tax, heat) total $1,700/month. GDS = $1,700 ÷ $7,500 = 22.7% You’re well under the 39% cap—so far, so good. Now factor in your other monthly obligations: Car loan: $300 Child support: $500 Credit card/line of credit payments: $700 Total other debt = $1,500/month Now add that to the $1,700 in housing costs: TDS = $3,200 ÷ $7,500 = 42.7% Uh oh. Even though your GDS looks great, your TDS is just over the 42% limit. That could put your mortgage approval at risk—even if you’re paying similar or higher rent now. What Can You Do? In cases like this, small adjustments can make a big difference: Consolidate or restructure your debts to lower monthly payments Reallocate part of your down payment to reduce high-interest debt Add a co-applicant to increase qualifying income Wait and build savings or credit strength before applying This is where working with an experienced mortgage professional pays off. We can look at your entire financial picture and help you make strategic moves to qualify confidently. Don’t Leave It to Chance Everyone’s situation is different, and debt service ratios aren’t something you want to guess at. The earlier you start the conversation, the more time you’ll have to improve your numbers and boost your chances of approval. If you're wondering how much home you can afford—or want help analyzing your own GDS and TDS—let’s connect. I’d be happy to walk through your numbers and help you build a solid mortgage strategy.
Thinking About Buying a Second Property? Here’s What to Know Buying a second property is an exciting milestone—but it’s also a big financial decision that deserves thoughtful planning. Whether you're dreaming of a vacation retreat, building a rental portfolio, or looking to support a family member with a place to live, there are plenty of reasons to consider a second home. But before you jump in, it's important to understand the strategy and steps involved. Start with “Why” The best place to begin? Clarify your motivation. Ask yourself: Why do I want to buy a second property? What role will it play in my life or finances? How does this fit into my long-term goals? Whether your focus is lifestyle, income, or legacy planning, knowing your “why” will help you make smarter decisions from the start. Talk to a Mortgage Expert Early Once you’ve nailed down your goals, the next step is to sit down with an independent mortgage professional. Why? Because buying a second property isn't quite the same as buying your first. Even if you’ve qualified before, financing a second home has unique considerations—especially when it comes to down payments, debt ratios, and how lenders assess risk. How Much Do You Need for a Down Payment? Here’s where the purpose of the property really matters: Owner-occupied or family use: You may qualify with as little as 5–10% down, depending on the property and lender. Income property: Expect to put down 20–35%, especially for short-term rentals or if it won’t be occupied by you or a family member. Your down payment amount can be one of the biggest hurdles—but with strategic planning, it’s often manageable. Ways to Fund the Down Payment If you don’t have the full amount in cash, you might be able to tap into your current home’s equity to help fund the purchase. Here are a few ways to do that: ✅ Refinance your existing mortgage to access additional funds ✅ Secure a second mortgage behind your current one ✅ Open a HELOC (Home Equity Line of Credit) ✅ Use a reverse mortgage (in certain age-qualified scenarios) ✅ Take out a new mortgage if your current home is mortgage-free These options depend on your income, credit, home value, and overall financial picture—another reason why having a pro in your corner matters. Second Property Strategy: It’s More Than Just Numbers This purchase should be part of a bigger financial plan—one that balances risk and reward. It’s about: Assessing your full financial health Maximizing your existing assets Minimizing your cost of borrowing Aligning your purchase with your long-term goals Ready to Take the Next Step? There’s no one-size-fits-all answer when it comes to buying a second property. That’s why it helps to talk things through with someone who understands both the big picture and the small details. If you’re ready to explore your options and build a plan to make that second property dream a reality, let’s connect. I’d love to help you take the next step with confidence.
